LP Gas, February 2019

industry UPDATE weather watch TRACKING ENERGY MARKET CONDITIONS The U S Energy Information Administration EIA began publication of an interactive dashboard that provides timely information about energy market conditions in the region The New England Dashboard provides an integrated view of the energy commodities and market influencing fundamentals such as weather that can influence energy consumption prices flows and security in the region EIA says it will post updates to the dashboard every day by 10 a m Eastern Visit eia gov dashboard newengland BARNEYS BLAST Barney the popular purple dinosaur isnt wreaking weather related havoc on parts of the country necessarily but some weather experts were using the reference in January due to the purple hues representing extreme cold on weather maps The coldest weather in decades was expected in the Midwest in late January as a polar vortex plunged southward toward the Great Lakes Temperatures were expected to break daily records as an arctic air mass settled in with wind chill values reaching life threatening levels In the final days of January AccuWeather reported all time record low temperatures in Moline Illinois minus 33 Rockford Illinois minus 30 and Cedar Rapids Iowa minus 30 Businesses and schools grinded to a halt ANOTHER POLAR VORTEX Talk of a polar vortex in January conjured up thoughts from the 2013 14 winter That winter challenged the propane industry with regional supply and distribution issues and price spikes and it painted the industry in a negative light The industry responded after that winter with national organizations sharing best supply practices for propane marketers and customers some companies also added more storage as a result So what is a polar vortex anyway Its defined as a whirling mass of cold air that sits over the North Pole or South Pole On some occasions the extremely cold air can move from the North Pole into the United States It remained to be seen how the propane industry responded to what surely was increased demand for heating fuels END OF WINTER A historically cold back half of winter began around Jan 15 It started the week prior with a big snowstorm in the Washington D C area and then repeated cold shots began All roads lead to February While deepest absolute cold will let up by mid February as the sun angle gets higher and the days get longer the greatest cold relative to normal appears poised to come down from Canada meteorological consulting firm WeatherBELL Analytics reports The highest impacted area has been in the Midwest first with the chill expected to shift to the Southeast and East Coast later in the month Snow and ice will create a feedback keeping days colder and helping nighttime temperatures fall WeatherBELL says a snap to spring will occur in mid March a departure from the extended winter of 2018 PROPANE MARKET METRICS TOTAL U S PROPANE EXPORTED TO OTHER PADD REGIONS MILLION GALLONS U S Total PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 2016 9579 190 5483 1265 2641 0 2017 10516 528 6024 1196 2768 0 Last 12 Months 8201 413 4645 896 2246 0 SHARE OF U S PROPANE EXPORTED TO OTHER PADD REGIONS PERCENT 2016 36 8 86 8 125 0 2017 38 19 92 8 128 0 Last 12 Months 36 19 87 7 130 0 Source ICF Source ICF STOCK WATCH U S Total PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 These charts show the amount of propane moving from the respective PADD region to other PADD regions by pipeline barge or rail LPGasmagazine com February 2019 LPGas 9 ISTOCK COM JENNAWAGNER Source Company data FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities LLC Data courtesy of AccuWeather and WeatherBELL Company 12 month chart as of January 19 Price 1 18 19 Current Yield 52 Week Low 52 Week High YTD Price Performance AmeriGas APU 2969 130 2275 4837 174 Ferrellgas FGP 110 00 053 433 1056 Suburban Propane SPH 2247 108 1863 2593 166