LP Gas, October 2018
WAITING FOR A WINTER WONDERLAND BY JAMES E GUYETTE CONTRIBUTING EDITOR Propane industry experts show cautious optimism regarding supply going into winter heating season A lthough the spot market could get iffy due to high levels of propane exports if sustained cold hits industry experts are cautiously optimistic that propane providers will have enough winter gallons available despite a record setting deluge of rainfall destruction and infrastructural disruptions wrought by Hurricane Florence and its lingering remnants Overall we expect stocks to behave similarly to last year maintaining an adequate number of days of supply coming out of winter at or around 20 days based on previous years trends says Austin Rial senior NGL analyst at S P Global Platts Propane production has increased by over 25 percent since this time last year meaning that stocks while very important during acute winter demand Stocks should maintain an adequate number of days of supply coming out of winter periods will play a diminished role in supplying domestic demand he adds Said another way an increasing percentage of U S demand will likely be met by the growing monthly supply Regarding the prospects of spot purchases off the high seas Youll have to pay up if its a cold winter says Mark Meacham principal analyst at IHS Markit Its going to get tighter exports are going to expand this year Should heavy loads arise however spot buys will remain an option If theres a bid for propane in New England there will be cargoes directed 22 LPGas October 2018 LPGasmagazine com ISTOCK COM BRENDANHUNTER ALEXEIKADIROV WINTER PREVIEW Continued on page 24
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